Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
